Twenty years ago, only the most marginal economists and politicians could talk about abandoning the dollar, and few took them seriously. And if someone suggested that the President of the European Commission and the Chairman of the people's Republic of China would be at the forefront of the attack against the dollar system, this predictor would be considered insane.
Five years ago, such proposals already sounded louder, but at best they were expressed by the most courageous or radical experts. Most recently, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker delivered a keynote speech to the European Parliament, which can be considered a Declaration of economic war by the United States, and the first and main goal is to deprive the us dollar of the status of the world's main currency. Moreover, Juncker immediately moved to specific proposals for the dismantling of the so-called oil-dollar system and said that the European currency must necessarily become "the face and instrument of a new sovereign Europe."
It is unlikely that the head of the European Commission took such a radical position without the support of his main political patron, That is, Angela Merkel, who, in fact, ensured his appointment. The European Union does not have many options in terms of opportunities to make the US really hurt, but active participation in de-dollarization is a very good way not only to cause quite serious damage to the American economy and political elite, but also a good opportunity to stimulate the European economy due to the increased demand for the European currency.
The key thesis of Juncker's speech: "it is absurd that Europe pays for 80 percent of its energy imports (which is 300 billion euros per year!) in us dollars, although only two percent of energy imports come from the us. It's absurd that European companies buy European planes for dollars, not euros." Further steps, the plan of which the head of the European Commission promised to present by the end of this year, are quite obvious: Brussels emissaries will make oil and gas exporters very attractive proposals to change the currency in which contracts are executed. Instead of the dollar, the Euro will gradually begin to figure there, and although contracts of this kind are almost all concluded at the level of private European oil and gas and energy companies, the European Commission (especially with the support of the governments of Germany, France and Italy) will always have very strong tools to convince private companies of the need to change their habits for the sake of the common European good.
Of all the countries that sell their energy to the EU, only Norway receives payments in euros. The logical conclusion is that in the near future European buyers or politicians will offer to Russian energy exporters to change the currency of contracts. Is this good or bad for us? On the one hand, the de-dollarization of world trade is objectively beneficial to Russia and the withdrawal of Russian economic relations with the European Union from the dollar zone greatly reduces the vulnerability of Russian companies to us sanctions and leads to disconnection from the dollar system as a whole.
On the other hand, if all energy trade between Russia and the European Union is transferred exclusively to the Euro, it will limit the opportunities for the development of the international role of the ruble. This task was set by President Vladimir Putin back in 2007 in his speech at the St. Petersburg international economic forum. In his speech, the President formulated strategic requirements for raising the status of the Russian currency: "no reserve currency can be created virtually, it is impossible to appoint a national reserve currency. Therefore, our task, I mean the task of the Russian Federation, is to make the ruble more attractive, convenient, reliable means of payment for our companies, for our neighbors, for everyone who would like to use it in their calculations."
If you look at the structure of relations between the Russian and the world economy, it becomes self — evident that selling (at least partially) oil and gas for rubles is the most effective possible tool for increasing international demand for the ruble.
The transfer (at least partial) of payments for oil and gas into rubles will give a very clear answer to the question: why international investors or just commercial companies may need rubles.